SALT LAKE CITY — The issues voters are most worried about this election cycle are felt especially deep in Utah’s swing-state neighbors, Nevada and Arizona. But one issue unique to the Southwest appears to be getting swept under the rug.
Nevada has been impacted by inflation more than anywhere. Arizona has been at the frontlines of the border crisis. But the two states, like Utah, are also among those with the most severe shortages of affordable homes in the nation.
And while former President Donald Trump is more trusted by voters to tackle economic and immigration issues, he may be missing an opportunity to address a “huge pain point” for eight out of 10 voters in the election’s pivotal desert battlegrounds, according to the region’s premier political pollster , Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights.
“Trump definitely holds the high ground on these economic issues. What’s interesting though, Trump doesn’t have a big breakout gain on housing affordability,” Noble said. “So there’s an opportunity there between the Trump camp and the Harris camp to gain on that issue because it is a big priority.”
In what Noble called “a smart move,” Vice President Kamala Harris recently introduced housing proposals to increase supply across the country by 3 million units through a program of cutting regulatory red tape, subsidizing first-time homebuyers and implementing rent controls. Regardless of the economic merits of these plans, Noble said Trump also needs to place the issue of housing affordability front and center to increase his odds of winning in Arizona and Nevada.
Worries about being able to afford a home have skyrocketed in the West in the last few years, especially among independent and Hispanic voters, Noble said, making it one of the most important issues for Trump or Harris to address in order to win undecided voters. It consistently ranks in the top three issues along with inflation and immigration, Noble Predictive Insights polling found.
The issue is influential for voters in the West because many residents made the choice to live in Arizona and Nevada “because they know it’s a lower cost of living compared to the East Coast, West Coast, and there’s more opportunities,” Noble said — and voters are eager for the Southwest to return to their reason for braving the heat.
At this point, residents of the Silver and Copper states have become accustomed to the Trump-Vance and Harris-Walz motorcades passing through town — by the end of the week , the 2024 presidential nominees from both major parties will have visited Arizona and Nevada, two of the country’s seven “toss-up” states, a total of 24 times .
But Noble and top political consultants in Arizona and Nevada told the Deseret News that the presidential candidates, hailing respectively from the East and West coasts — as well as their Midwestern running mates — can do more to resonate with voters in Utah’s corner of the United States.
“In the political discourse, people still don’t understand fully what makes people in the Southwest tick,” Noble said.
Inflation
Arizona and Nevada are especially sensitive to the issues that have dominated political conversations this election cycle.
A national New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in early September found that most voters said the economy was the most important issue in deciding their vote. If inflation is included, then 28% of voters consider this their top issue, the poll found.
Abortion, at 14%; immigration, at 12%; and the state of democracy at 7% came next on the list, with candidate character and dislike of the opposing candidate tied at 6%.
Economic concerns are especially poignant in Nevada, where 30% of voters selected the economy or inflation as their top issue in an earlier New York Times poll .
Nevada’s unique economy has made the state especially susceptible to the impacts of inflation, said Zachary Moyle, the head pollster at Reformation Strategies. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate of any state and one of the highest cumulative inflation rates in the country, with the same goods and services costing $1,200 more a month than they did in 2021.
“We’re a great barometer for the economy because we’re built on tourism, number one, and then number two, that blue collar atmosphere around it, the casino folks, restaurant folks,” Moyle said. “Their jobs are very dependent upon the economy itself and how it’s moving.”
Immigration
Like the rest of the nation, Arizona has also been impacted by rising prices. But it is immigration that has long made Arizona stand out, according to Chuck Coughlin, CEO and president of the polling firm HighGround, Inc.
“Arizona is, I say, the most mature voting universe of immigration-related voters in the country,” Coughlin said. “It was abundantly evident this was a huge problem when nobody else was talking about it.”
A Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted of 1,000 Arizonans in August found that immigration was the No. 1 issue voters considered a top concern, with almost one quarter (24%) of Arizona voters placing it first. Slightly fewer (23%) picked inflation, 13% picked abortion and 10% picked affordable housing.
Voters consistently trust Republicans more on questions of the economy and immigration, that’s why Stan Barnes, the founder of Copper State consulting group, believes Trump “will carry Arizona.”
There was a sense of “relative border security” and economic stability under the former president, Barnes said. “And so Trump’s desire to address that issue is winning big points with people.”
